Survival of the fittest ...

"On April 7, Gov. David Paterson stood in the Melville office of the New York State Department of Transportation and said Long Island’s construction workers were about to get back to work, thanks to the recently approved stimulus package trumpeted by the Obama administration. Also on hand that spring day: members of New York’s congressional delegation.

The big event turned out to be little more than a photo op.

“We don’t need photo ops,” said John Durso, the president of the Long Island Federation of Labor. “We need shovels in the ground and people at work.”

That hasn’t happened.

In fact, only 15 percent of the funding allocated to New York will be used to refresh the state’s decaying infrastructure. Instead, an overwhelming portion of the money went to fill the state’s budget gap ..."

Another example of a good idea not ready for implementation due, in part, to a lack of a dynamic, collaborative system on Long Island for turning good ideas (in this case much needed public infrastructure projects) into immediate action.

In short, we are not prepared to react, adapt and take advantage of rapid changes and opportunities in our environment.

In nature and business this is usually a fatal flaw.

The One Long Island series of dynamic "inter-related" concepts is an attempt to remedy this problem and create a platform for Long Island's future success.

More Citizen Alert ideas ...

"Three state senators called on Gov. David A. Paterson to sign into law a bill that would create a statewide e-mail alert program notifying people when a convicted sex offender moves into a neighborhood.

But the executive director of Parents for Megan's Law - a Stony Brook-based nonprofit group that provides the same service and allows visitors to its Web site to map where offenders are located with thumbnail sketches complete with pictures - said such a program may be redundant."

Here we have yet the latest example of a worthwhile program running into an "implementation" problem.

Putting aside the issues that the alerts should be more than email (xml etc) and as we have previously stated, ideas of this sort should be "plug and play."

That is, there should be existing, dynamic and flexible open standards in place to immediately execute the ideas of our elected officials and our concerned citizens and organizations.

"One Long Island" contains suggestions for this type of open system.

Odds and ends ...

Sorry about the sparsity of posts lately. A combination of the summer doldrums and finishing up my new CD.

There never seems to be enough hours in the day.

A couple of things though ...

Congratulations to the Nassau Council of Chambers of Commerce on their new Web 2.0/3.0 project with Karma 411 , General Sentiment and others. I was happy to play a small part in getting that off the ground.

Also, please check out the new Long Island Blog Posts site by Bruce Chamoff's company.

Also I've been formulating and expanding my "dynamic legislation" concept.

I just find it incredible that we can't "normalize" of simplify (simplify, NOT make simplistic) and construct algorithms (fixed and ad hoc) that will allow legislators and the general public to analyze and determine the reasonable outcomes of legislation as a stand alone measure and in concert with existing legislation.

The very idea that local, state and federal bodies are passing legislation without reading it or understanding its impact should frighten even the most cold hearted cynic.

Dynamic Action vs Unintended Consequences:Part I

Unintended consequences are outcomes that are not (or not limited to) the results originally intended in a particular situation. The unintended results may be foreseen or unforeseen, but they should be the logical or likely results of the action. For example, historians have speculated that if the Treaty of Versailles had not imposed such harsh conditions on Germany, World War II would not have occurred. From this perspective, one might consider the war an unintended consequence of the treaty.

Unintended consequences can be grouped into roughly three types:

• a positive unexpected benefit, usually referred to as serendipity or a windfall
• a negative or perverse effect, that may be contrary to what was originally intended
• a potential source of problems, such as described by Murphy's law

Discussions of unintended consequences usually refer to the situation of perverse results. This situation can arise when a policy has a perverse incentive and causes actions contrary to what is desired.

The law of unintended consequences

The "law of unintended consequences" (also called the "law of unforeseen consequences") states that any purposeful action will produce some unintended consequences. A classic example is a bypass — a road built to relieve traffic congestion on a congested road — that attracts new development and with it more traffic, resulting in two congested streets instead of one.

This maxim is not a scientific law; it is more in line with Murphy's law as a warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control the world around them. Stated in other words, each cause has more than one effect, and these effects will invariably include at least one unforeseen side effect. The unintended side effect can potentially be more significant than any of the intended effects.

History

The idea of unintended consequences dates back at least to Adam Smith, the Scottish Enlightenment, and consequentialism (judging by results). However, it was the sociologist Robert K. Merton who popularized this concept in the twentieth century.

In his 1936 paper, "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action", Merton tried to apply a systematic analysis to the problem of "unanticipated consequences" of "purposive social action". He emphasized that his term "purposive action… [is exclusively] concerned with 'conduct' as distinct from 'behavior.' That is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives".^[1] Merton also stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted."^[2]

Causes

Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the environment), perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception or other cognitive or emotional biases. As a sub-component of complexity (in the scientific sense), the chaotic nature of the universe – and especially its quality of having small, apparently insignificant changes with far-reaching effects (e.g., the Butterfly Effect) – applies.

Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences:^[3]

1. Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis)
2. Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)
3. Immediate interest, which may override long-term interests
4. Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
5. Self-defeating prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated)

We will attempt to explore over the next few posts how our concept of "Dynamic Action (or Dynamic Planning, Dynamic Legislation etc)" may potentially serve as a hedge against the unintended consequences of what appears to be the "correct" decision at a particular moment in time.

Comments ...

Some good ideas in the proposal. More needs to be done however to determine the actual savings of the plan and the impact it will have on the structural governance of the service providers and the delivery of services. Also the legislation should include all governing bodies, not just those cited.

They did well with the information they had available, but Long Island (and New York) needs a more formal plan to normalize and analyze data and otherwise engage in “meta-planning” and “meta education.”

We should also use “collaborative technology” in a “dynamic” way so that the results of any report or proposal including the present “static” one, have broad support from the public based upon actual knowledge and input.

Congratulations on a good job however in “moving the ball forward” and engaging the public in an important issue. More here http://www.onelongisland.com

Dynamic Legislation continued ...

"A proposal for political accountability: add up all the costs imposed on localities by New York State through its actions, then deduct all the benefits localities get from the state.

We’re unsure what the answer would be, but there is some anecdotal evidence that the cost to localities has been moving upward in recent months."

A good example of what we've been talking about. No one really knows the impact of their legislative actions.

To be fair, this is a longstanding problem and not just in New York State

However it is knowable.

As we've discussed here among other posts, we require a new methodology for coming to rational solutions.

More later ...

Dynamic Legislative Process: Part One

OK, so with all the commotion about the new stimulus package, I got to thinking.

How can we take some of the "One Long Island" concepts and apply them to a "dynamic" legislative process?

Not only for the federal government, but for state and local entities as well.

The above diagram is just a quick first draft.

More in Part Two.

Static planning vs dynamic planning ...

"The Town of Huntington is about to release Comprehensive Plan Update: Horizons 2020, a draft version of what will become a roadmap for future development in the town that includes Huntington Station, East Northport and Dix Hills.

The town will put copies of the plan in libraries throughout Huntington, as well as Huntington Town Hall at 100 Main Street. It will also be posted on the town’s Web site."

Good to see some long range planning going on and the Town Huntington is to be commended for the effort.

But like previous planning efforts on Long Island (and elsewhere) we still have not bridged the gap from "static planning" into "dynamic planning (as previously discussed on this site)."

Wouldn't it be productive to have this plan (and other "local" plans across Long Island) be part of a Long Island dynamic meta-plan and as generally available meta-data?

Furthermore, shouldn't the information gathered in the Huntington model be available island- wide for study and possible use in other jurisdictions?

Won't situations change over time? Wouldn't it be helpful to update and analyze all or part of what you are doing in virtual real time, rather than have to start the process from scratch each time?

As we've stated previously, if governmental entities (like the Town of Huntington) , individuals, and organizations had access to easy to use, available analytic tools, methodologies, data structures etc., when one entity creates good work, it links to the "greater entity" (Long Island) so that all may benefit.

More to come ...

Meta-Leadership: Part III

(Select image for a larger view)

Fluid versus Static Intelligence

"An individual's level of fluid intelligence can be determined based on the degree to which he or she is able to let go of previously held conceptions on encountering reliable information or experiences which show these conceptions to be mistaken or overly simplistic.

At the other end of the spectrum from fluid intelligence is static intelligence.

When those with a high degree of static intelligence encounter information which seriously questions the established paradigm, they attempt to discredit the new information using laws and principles previously agreed upon under the old paradigm. If they fail at this, the new information is then deemed not worthy of study and discarded. At worst, the new evidence is actively attacked as being irrational or unscientific, even though it may be easily verified."

Why is a "dynamic" Long Island important?

Why is a "dynamic" Long Island important?

As we've stated in previous posts a "dynamic" Long Island is, in effect, a Long Island in perpetual motion. There is no "down time" for stagnation and negativism to creep in and stop progress (whatever form this progress eventually becomes is a by-product of the collaboration Long Island 3.0 encourages).

We use the term Long Island 3.0 to encompass all the different ideas we promote on this site including the Long Island Congress, the Virtual Long Island Constitution , Citizen Media Network etc. Long Island 3.0 is not only a series of proposals, but hopefully a way to point to a "Long Island Philosophy" of sorts. A new and pragmatic way to think about Long Island and its future and to hopefully encourage the positive change we require.

Additionally, and as we've stated previously, there are many good people and good organizations striving to make Long Island a better place. The issue more often than not seems to boil down to the loss of momentum. Many good ideas and programs "die on the vine" for a lack of momentum.

Long Island 3.0 counteracts this loss of momentum by establishing flexible standards (technical and otherwise) which create the "dynamism" Long Island requires to forge a new identity for this century and beyond.

Interesting reading ...

A new report on restructuring the New York Empire State Development organization has been issued.  Another "static" report, but helpful nevertheless.

It contains a number of proposals that coordinate with the Long Island Congress/Long Island 3.0 concepts as well as some other positive programs currently proposed or underway on Long Island.

Connect the dots ... use the Long Island Congress.

The case for "verifiable vendor-neutrality"

"Open standards are clearly a good thing. Hurrah for open standards, etc. Nail my hat to the ceiling! But anyone who has been involved in community and consortium committees where there are commercial rivalries engaged knows that the thing that kills or corrupts a standard is when the spirit of mutual accommodation is overtaken by the spirit of competition. When I look over the standards that I have been to one extent involved with, at ISO, W3C and tangentially at IETF and OASIS, the golden rule is that the standards that come out of a nasty process have problems. The rancour during the Open XML debates does not auger well either for ODF and Open XML, in this respect, but I am an optimist."

Excellent analysis of how we should approach the "open standards" or "verifiable vendor neutrality" issue.

100% on point for our Long Island 3.0/Long Island Congress project.

A different view of change

"Although Mr. Keen's objections to the publishing and distribution tools the Web provides to aspiring artists and writers sound churlish and elitist he calls publish-on-demand services a just cheaper, more accessible versions of vanity presses where the untalented go to purchase the veneer of publications he is eloquent on the fallout that free, user-generated materials is having on traditional media."

Very thought provoking article. I'll most likely read his book before commenting in depth, although I think he is stuck on Web 2.0 and has not looked at the possibilities of a Web 3.0 approach, unless that is in his book somewhere.

Anyway, the genie is out of the bottle and although his observations have a lot of merit, the process which has started will not be reversed.

Perhaps he should look into how how to "professionalize" the "amateurs," since this era of organizational and, perhaps, media Darwinism will not always reward and respect tradition, but will reward instead those who adapt best to their environment.

More required reading ...

"Second is the forging of new partnerships and strategies of governance beyond just the role of government. This is really important to me because it defines the essence of what public policy's all about. Thirty years ago, public policy was largely about training students and doing research that related to the role of government and in making public policies at the state and national level. The needs then were to make the work of government more rational and more analytical. Today, public policy involves a lot more than government. It involves the non-profit sector. It involves the roles of NGOs (non-governmental organizations), international government organizations, foundations. It involves the private sector playing different kinds of roles and engaging in new ways in the public policy arena."

Some good news ...

Apparently, all my writing and ideas have not been for naught.

We should have some good news about the creation of a Long Island Congress and a plan to implement some Long Island 3.0 concepts pretty soon.

Thanks to all who have agreed to participate.

Use a Scalpel, Not a Sledgehammer

"Warning: Consolidation can save some money (administrative costs), but will not make big change in tax situation. In past few months, studies in Michigan, Ohio, New Jersey, other states have disappointed many by finding that school districts consolidations won't save big bucks. It's about service, decision-making, rationale planning. Special districts are service districts. Start there. "

Interesting history of special districts above (click for entire article) and well worth reading. Good information here as well.

I had the pleasure of watching the Glenwood Fire Company's 100th Anniversary Parade this past Saturday in my hometown of Glen Head. Many of the local fire departments were present.

Although I know many of the volunteers from my days as a Town Councilman (I had the pleasure of creating the first or one of the first Fire Advisory Boards to foster cooperation between the town and the fire service) and from growing up in the area, it still gives me a sense of pride in community to see the level of professionalism and sacrifice these folks make on our behalf. There was a large crowd present and they too gave the volunteers a great response.

There is just something special about Long Island and the way it works that we need to be cognisant of before making wholesale changes. It is almost like a great intricate clock filled with moving parts that work in unison to create the heartbeat of our island. Whether it is the fire service or the environment or any of the dozens of other community causes and organizations on our Island, we all share a sense of pride in our communities.

Why do people still want to live on Long Island and continue to move here? I believe most folks know the good far outweighs the bad and they enjoy the sense of a "smaller community" that they have more control over while still having the opportunities that exist within a larger metropolitan area.

Long Island is a unique mix. We can look to other areas of the country and the world for ideas on how we can make Long Island better, but trying to "force" Long Island to become some other region, I think, is ultimately a fool's errand. We have to take what we have, understand what we are and make it work better. That requires a deeper level of analysis and commitment than garden variety comparisons and lists of complaints.

The Community Congress (and now Virtual Community Congress and Long Island Congress) concepts are ideas about how to harness this positive energy for the common good. I also had the pleasure of starting one of the first Marine Education Day educational programs here on Long Island which has now exposed tens of thousands of school children to our environment and how to protect it. This too was part of the Community Congress concept.

I admit to at least a little bias when it comes to our fire companies and volunteers and the the pride residents of Long Island take in their individual communities on all levels. When I was a young man I used to march in bands all over Long Island playing my trumpet and countless Sousa marches in hundreds of community celebrations. You really get a sense of how Long Island ticks at the grass roots level in these unguarded celebratory moments when a community comes together to celebrate itself and its accomplishments.

Do we need to change on Long Island to prepare for a better future? Yes.

Do we also need to preserve the elements that make Long Island a unique and good place to live? Yes.

Can we do both? Absolutely.

All the Long Island 3.0/ Long Island Congress ideas are geared towards a cooperative, productive Long Island. We will always have many "moving parts" on our island, even if the parts change from time to time. If we do not have a methodology to address change in a dynamic way, we will always be "behind the curve" in our decision making capabilities.

Let's be smart about change. Think before we act.

Use a scalpel, not a sledgehammer

Another Piece of the Long Island Puzzle

Good article below and well worth reading. Long Island Colleges and Universities must, as we've stated previously, must play an integral role in the creation of any long term public policy solutions and are a major part of the Long Island 3.0 (and New York 3.0) concepts.


"Economic growth, university-style, on Long Island
By Robert A. Scott
Friday, June 8, 2007 (LI Business News)

Imagine a community chamber of commerce that decided to start a strategic planning process for economic development, including the following principles and priorities.
First, they want to recruit an enterprise that would produce a product or service of which everyone could be proud. Second, they want an enterprise whose employees are highly educated and willing to be active in community organizations. Third, they want an enterprise that is respectful of the environment. Fourth, they want an enterprise willing to partner with schools, the civic community and businesses. Fifth, they want an enterprise that would have a significant and positive impact on the local economy through taxes paid and both operating and capital expendures.
On Long Island, that enterprise is higher education. There are 19 colleges and universities here with combined annual budgets totaling over $3.2 billion – that easily translates into a $4 billion economic impact, and this does not count the effects of more than $1 billion in capital investments committed for the next five years.
Nor does it count FICA, federal and state income taxes and other taxes collected. And when one adds in the restaurant, hotel and other expenditures of those who visit campuses during the year (for homecoming, reunions, cultural events, graduations and sports events), the economic impact grows even larger – and we haven’t even mentioned the expenditures of nearly 175,000 students and 38,000 employees.
Universities are teachers, models and partners in economic and community development. We use our intellectual, cultural and capital assets to prepare professionals, managers and artists; to contribute to the quality of life that attracts and sustains businesses; and to create jobs and wealth. This is economic development, university-style: the community developer’s dream partner."

Robert A. Scott is president of Adelphi University in Garden City.

Some additional interesting thoughts:

Newsday 6/8/07 Letters to the Editor

Use Avis site for affordable homesIt is common knowledge through the work of the Long Island Association and the Rauch Foundation's Long Island Index that Nassau and Suffolk counties lack adequate supplies of affordable housing for young professionals and service workers. As a consequence, businesses, schools and colleges find it difficult to recruit those with critical skills. The challenge for the business sector is so severe that we now refer to the "Top 75" public companies, not the "Top 100."Too much of new housing is for those 55 and older with no school-age children. Rental apartments at affordable rates are hard to find.County, state and federal properties no longer used for their public purpose should be zoned, in whole or in part, for multiple-dwelling workforce, or "starter," housing.Now on Old Country Road at the site of the old Avis property in Westbury, we have an opportunity to build housing for young professionals and others who could fill critical job needs and become the consumers and taxpayers Nassau County needs.With some imagination, special zoning and Hempstead support, a new housing development could help revitalize an area that could easily become blighted if attention is not given to our highest priorities.Surely, this must be of interest to the county executive, the Town of Hempstead and Simon Properties, owners of nearby Roosevelt Field Mall.

Robert A. Scott Editor's note: The writer is president of Adelphi University.Garden City

More old stuff...

I was clearing out some old files and I came across this chart.

It represents how autonomous or related entities (organizational, conceptual, advocacy based etc.) can maintain their autonomy and identity while cooperating and interacting with the larger world through the utilization of XML technology.

Just one part of the puzzle.

Long Island Decision Model: Part Three

Here's a good article on something called "Boyd Cycle Theory" and how to anticipate and react to changes in your environment.

While not exactly on point for our purposes, it does offer useful guidance in the area of how to create good public policy in a rapidly changing environment.

This is also an interesting article on the use of artificial intelligence and the creation of public policy.